ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN - A BIG SETBACK

Monday, February 11, 2013


With fresh snow fall and rain in northern part of the country including national capital, the cold weather prolonged its stay for some more days amidst the plethora of dampening news of Indian Economy too suffering from cold with no signs of fast recovery at least during the current fiscal despite certain monetary and fiscal measures taken by RBI and the central government.  Revision and re- revision of estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Fiscal Deficit (FD), Current Account Deficit (CAD) and other economic & financial indices is being worked out as a desperate attempt at the fag end of the year to make the figures look  not that bad to affect the electoral prospect of UPA partners in the ensuing 16th general election. As such, it would be interesting to see what the hard facts/data actually portray:

  • The GDP growth is estimated to be at 5% in 2012-13, the lowest in a decade and almost half the rate at which it grew in 2006-07.
  • Agriculture sector is estimated to grow at the rate of 1.8% in the current fiscal year where as it had grown at 3.86% in 2011-12.
  • Industrial growth is estimated at 3.1% against the previous year growth rate of 3.5%.
  • The Services sector which has been the major contributor to GDP growth in the country is also showing a definite slow down and hence estimated to grow at 6.6% where as it grew at the rate of 8.2% in 2011-12. 
  • Over 120 lacs young Indians enter the job market every year.
  • Manufacturing sector alone witnessed the loss of more than 50 lacs jobs during the period 2005-10.
  • The Rate of Savings - one of the biggest economic strengths of our country, registered further  decline and is now estimated at 30%. Savings rate has been falling steadily year after year for some time now.
  • Fiscal Deficit is estimated to be at 5.3% plus which  was projected in 2012-13 budget at 5.1% of GDP.
  • The  Rates of Inflation, both Food as well as Retail are as high as 13.53% & 10.56% respectively for Dec'12   


Going by the economic data mentioned herein above coupled with political indecisiveness at the apex level even on economic issues concerning the general well being of millions of common people, it is but natural for the citizens  of the country to be highly apprehensive of further escalation in prices of essential commodities  due to likely imposition of tax burden in the ensuing rail and general budgets to be announced  later in this month.

The implication of slow down in economic growth, we know well, is and  would be fatal as far as job creation, implementation of welfare schemes, external debt & interest servicing,investment prospects etc. are concerned.

Can a country  having huge human as well as natural resources (with world's largest youth force) allow it to happen like this any more or should it stand up to act decisively & qualitatively individually & collectively  at all levels  to ensure robust and inclusive economic growth in coming years. Simultaneously, the law of the land, it is hoped, would identify  & punish suitably all those political and administrative bigwigs who have been responsible & accountable for this sordid state of economy.

Post Comments to share your Views/Experiences on the subject.

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